Anzalone-Liszt for Dina Titus (7/23-28, likely voters):
Dina Titus (D): 43
Jon Porter (R-inc): 39
Other: 10
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Those are some nice numbers for Dina Titus. She may be benefiting from a sense of regret among voters who didn’t pull the lever for her in her 2006 gubernatorial campaign and are now stuck with the thoroughly awful and massively unpopular GOP Gov. Jim Gibbons. While Porter’s favorability rating is at 50-41, Titus is in stronger shape at 56-32.
The numbers aren’t far off from a recent Mason-Dixon survey that had Porter leading Titus by three points in the D+1 district. In fact, Anzalone may even be lowballing her support. The partisan sample of the poll is 42% Dem, 42% GOP and 16% independent. But according to the most recent numbers, Democrats have amassed a 24,000 voter registration edge in the district — a big gain from two years ago, when both parties were tied.
It’s quite clear that Jon Porter is in for the fight of his life. While SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican, I think that we’ll have to revisit this rating very soon.
UPDATE: Excluding the third-party candidates, Titus’ lead widens:
When the third-party candidates were excluded and respondents were asked to choose only between Titus and Porter, Titus’ lead widened. In that scenario, Titus had the support of 50 percent, and Porter had 43 percent.
(H/T: DCal)
The two metro areas with the biggest price drops over the last year (percentage wise) are Las Vegas and Miami. People have lost a good chunk of their wealth here (28% of the house’s value). That is bad for current owners and prospective owners are more likely not living/voting in Nevada (at least as much as owners).
Is it any wonder that four south Florida races are on the radar screen along with this one. Voters have held the President’s party responsible since time out of mind (OK, at least 1840). See the congressional elections of 1992,1982,1958,1938,1932,1930,1920,1894,1874,1858,and 1840 for confirmation.
http://www.lvrj.com/news/26133…
I want to see action from NV-02!
SUSA finally has another election poll out: Burner is still 6 points behind Reichert.
even though this is an internal poll, it’s from Anzalone-Liszt, which is the firm that did a lot of the polling for the MS and LA special elections. As I recall, they were pretty accurate in those races.
our candidate changing and exit-and-entry troubles may have been a large net-plus for us? I for one thought that Dina Titus would have a better shot at this district, and it seems that her name recognition in the area puts her in a very strong position to win this.
Some people oh Daily Kos noted the arrogant campaign that she ran two years ago, saying she showed no appreciation to donors or volunteers. I don’t know if her attitude toward vounteers has changed, but I donated twice to her House campaign and both times received personal notes fran someone (I don’t assume it is her) on the form letters I recevied. She may be paying better attention to the details.
I recall seeing a few of their house special election polls earlier this year which were very close to the final results.
Another top tier race. As of now I think Titus has a fantastic shot of a pickup if everything goes right.